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# AS 1.12 Chance & Data Home AS91037

### Information for 1.12 Chance & Data(AS 91037)

Parts of the PPDAC cycle are investigated in this standard, AS1.12 Chance & Data, as well as AS1.10 Multivatiate Data , AS1.11 Bivariate Data and AS1.13 Probability Investigation

Summary of AS1.12 Chance & Data: (4 credit externally assessed topic)
- Evaluate statistical investigations or probability activities undertaken by others, including data collection methods, choice of measures, and validity of findings.
- Calculate probabilities, using fractions, percentages, and ratios.
- Evaluate statistical reports in the media by relating the displays, statistics, processes, and probabilities used to the claims made.
- Investigate situations that involve elements of chance: calculating probabilities in discrete situations.

Further Assessment Criteria information

Lesson sequence:
1. Overview, vocab, data collection, criteria
2. Populations & Sampling - claim justification
3. Measures of centre & spread
4. Sample distributions & dot plots
5. Histographs
6. Bar Graphs, comparative, strip, pie, picto etc
7. Box Plots - comparison, shift, overlap
8. Scatter plots - trend line, relationship, predictions
9. Time Series - trend, cycles, predictions
10. Discussion
11. Concept of randomness, vocabulary
12. Basic probability, probability scale
13. Choose & draw spinners
14. Long run relative frequency
15. List the possible outcomes, trees, lists & tables
16. Theoretical Probability
17. Expected Number
18. Tree diagrams
19. Games & Simulations
20. Probability Distributions & Discussion
21. Revision
22. Assessment

Statistics (Data)

Problem - Writing research questions & an introduction

Plan
- How to plan an investigation
- Population & Sampling

Data
- Recording Staistical data
- Tally, tables, fequency tables, stem & leaf plot

Analysis - Display
- Dot plot, sample distribution, shape, skew, histograph
- Bar graphs, comparative bar graphs
- Box plots, comparative box plots - Investigated further in AS1.10 Multivatiate Data
- Scatter plots, bivariate data, relationships - Investigated further in AS1.11 Bivariate Data
- Time series, trend, cycle, predictions

Analysis - Sample Statistics
- Centre - mean, median, mode, middle 50%

Conclusion
- Discussion, purpose, evaluate, interpret claims, accuracy, confidence, predictions

Probability (Chance)

Prior Knowledge:
- Concept of randomness, vocabulary, theoretical vs estimated probability, probability misconceptions
- Basic probability, probability scale
- Choose & draw spinners - most likely, least, equally
- Long run relative frequency

Problem
- Writing probability question & an introduction - Investigated further in AS1.13 Probability Investigation
- What makes a game fair?

Plan
- How to plan an investigation - Tool, Trial, Record, Calculate

Data
- Tables

Analysis - Display
- Probability distribution

Analysis -
- List the number of possible outcomes, basic trees, lists & tables
- Concepts of: and, or, union, not, complement
- Venn Diagrams
- Theoretical Probability
- Expected Number
- Tree diagrams

Conclusion
- Discussion, comparison of experiental & theoretical probabilities

Simulations, Probability games
- Probability games, Modeling & Simulations to determine estimated probability

### For Teachers

* Be familiar with the Achievement Standard AS1.12 #91037 (link to NZQA)

* Look over the NZQA Previous Exam papers on AS1.12 Chance & Data.

* AS 1.12 section on Nayland Web site updated: June 2015

Web links for more material on AS 1.12 Chance and Data (AS 91037)

Probability starters Power Point

Lots of information on statistics & graphs libweb.surrey.ac.uk