# 2.12 Probability Methods AS 91267

### Possible Lesson Sequence for 2.12 Probability Methods AS91267

1. Basic probability review, theoretical & experimental, (Achievement Objectives) Perceived probability, Relative frequency, Long-run relative frequency
2, 3. Vocabulary, Distribution tables, Expected value
4. Two way tables - Introduction, Intersection, Union
5. Two way tables - Conditional, Complement
6. Risk - Absolute & Relative
7. Risk - Increased, decrease,
8. Perceived Risk & practice
9. Probability trees, with & without replacement, AND & OR
10. Probability trees - adding branches
11. Probability trees, - conditional
12. Experiments - Describe & Compare Distributions
13. Normal Distribution - Introduction mean & standard deviation
14. Normal Distribution - mean & standard deviation
15. Standard Normal distribution
16. Normal Distribution
17. Inverse Normal Distribution
18. Normal practice
19. Revision
20. Practice Assessment. (practice for end of year)

Overview
1) Interpreting risk and relative risk
Calculate and interpret risk, Select a baseline group, Calculate and interpret relative risk and absolute risk. Consider what relevant information may be missing. Exposure and relative risk

2) Normal Distribution (and experimental distributions)
Compare the normal distribution with experimental distributions. Describe and compare distributions, recognise similar and different characteristics. Experimental probability investigation and how this could be representative of a population. Use the mean and standard deviation as sample statistics or as population parameters.

3) Two-way tables & Probability Trees
Calculate probabilities, using two-way tables & probability trees. Draw a probability tree based on a concrete situation. Calculate simple conditional probabilities.

### For Teachers

AS 2.12 Probability Methods AS91267 (4 credit externally assessed)

Achievement Standard 2.12 Apply Probability Methods to solve problems continues from level 1 with more complex situations. Several new concepts are introduced: Risk and Relative Risk, Normal Distributions

* Be familiar with the Achievement Standard 2.12 #91267 (link to NZQA)

* Look over the NZQA Exemplars on AS 2.12 Probability
91267 Sample Exam Paper | Assessment Schedule | Excellence | Merit | Achievement | Not Achieved

* Material available on the mathstatsfacilitators web site 2.12 page

* NZQA Assessment report 2012 (pdf)

* Check the latest comments on the NZmaths forum (login required)

* Any further ideas / suggestions / resources/ comments / errors. Please email maxr@nayland.school.nz

* AS 2.12 section on Nayland Web site updated: July 2013