Possible Lesson Sequence for 2.12 Probability Methods AS91267
1. Basic probability review, theoretical & experimental, (Achievement Objectives) Perceived probability, Relative frequency, Longrun relative frequency
2, 3. Vocabulary, Distribution tables, Expected value
4. Two way tables  Introduction, Intersection, Union
5. Two way tables  Conditional, Complement
6. Risk  Absolute & Relative
7. Risk  Increased, decrease,
8. Perceived Risk & practice
9. Probability trees, with & without replacement, AND & OR
10.
Probability trees  adding branches
11. Probability trees,  conditional
12. Experiments  Describe & Compare Distributions
13. Normal Distribution  Introduction mean & standard deviation
14. Normal Distribution  mean & standard deviation
15. Standard Normal distribution
16. Normal Distribution
17. Inverse Normal Distribution
18. Normal practice
19. Revision
20. Practice Assessment. (practice for end of year)
Overview
1) Interpreting risk and relative risk
Calculate and interpret risk, Select a baseline group, Calculate and interpret relative risk and absolute risk. Consider what relevant information may be missing. Exposure and relative risk
2) Normal Distribution (and experimental distributions)
Compare the normal distribution with experimental distributions. Describe and compare distributions, recognise similar and different characteristics. Experimental probability investigation and how this could be representative of a population. Use the mean and standard deviation as sample statistics or as population parameters.
3) Twoway tables & Probability Trees
Calculate probabilities, using twoway tables & probability trees. Draw a probability tree based on a concrete situation. Calculate simple conditional probabilities.

For Teachers
AS 2.12 Probability Methods AS91267 (4 credit externally assessed)
Achievement Standard 2.12 Apply Probability Methods to solve problems continues from level 1 with more complex situations. Several new concepts are introduced: Risk and Relative Risk, Normal Distributions
* Be familiar with the Achievement Standard 2.12 #91267 (link to NZQA)
* Look over the NZQA Exemplars on AS 2.12 Probability
91267 Sample Exam Paper  Assessment Schedule  Excellence  Merit  Achievement  Not Achieved
* Material available on the mathstatsfacilitators web site 2.12 page
* NZQA Assessment report 2012 (pdf)
* Census at schools resources
* Check the latest comments on the NZmaths forum (login required)
* Any further ideas / suggestions / resources/ comments / errors. Please email maxr@nayland.school.nz
* AS 2.12 section on Nayland Web site updated: July 2013
