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Possible Lesson Sequence for 2.13 Simulations AS 912681. Review of probability, Prob games Overview

For TeachersAS 2.13 Simulations AS 91268 (2 credit internally assessed) Achievement Standard 2.13 * Be familiar with the Achievement Standard 2.13 #91268 (link to NZQA) * Check the latest information on the NZQA clarifications page as things change all the time, and the exemplars in NZQA may be out of date (as they are in this standard) * Look over the NZQA Exemplars AS2.13 A & AS2.13 B * AS 2.13 Inference page at CENSUS at schools site * Any further ideas / suggestions / resources/ comments / errors. Please email maxr@nayland.school.nz * AS 2.13 section on Nayland Web site updated: Jan 2015

Web links for 2.13 Simulations AS 91268

Show evidence of all components of PPDAC cycle Identify tool  only has to say calc and how to allocate numbers to a trial eg digits 03 = apple (0.4) (no details needed) Cell phone random number generator Assessment: describe simulation with enough detail for someone else to do the simulation, Possible improvements etc *** Good to use as a 'credit catch up' topic at the end of the year*** 
Achieve 
Merit 
Excellence 
Must describe how how to allocate numbers to a trial eg digits 03 = apple (0.4) 
Clear definition of a trial Must describe how how to allocate numbers to a trial eg digits 03 = apple (0.4) with at least 1 assumption discussed 
Must describe how how to allocate numbers to a trial eg digits 03 = apple (0.4) with at least 2 assumptions discussed 
Do experiment and record results 
Do experiment and record results 
Do experiment and record results 
Display results (eg mean) 
Display results (eg mean  not rounded to whole number) 
Display results (eg mean) 
Communicate conclusion with sensible rounding 
Communicate conclusion with sensible rounding in the discussion  eg 8 days Understanding that repeated simulation would give different estimates 
Communicate conclusion with sensible rounding and understanding that repeated simulation would give different estimates 
Linking components of the simulation to the context, explain relevant considerations made in the design of the simulation and support findings with statements that refer to evidence gained from the simulation

Reflect on issues relating to accuracy of simulation. List the assumptions involved in the simulation. discussing the consequences of these assumptions and possible improvements on the simulation process. Discuss the effects of the assumptions on the simulation itself. 