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# 2.13 Simulations AS 91268

### Possible Lesson Sequence for 2.13 Simulations AS 91268

1. Review of probability, Prob games
2. Casino, Catch of the match, Multiply 7, Largest score, Seahorse race, Shark attack
3. Simulations overview TTRC

Overview
1

### For Teachers

AS 2.13 Simulations AS 91268 (2 credit internally assessed)

Achievement Standard 2.13

* Be familiar with the Achievement Standard 2.13 #91268 (link to NZQA)

* Check the latest information on the NZQA clarifications page as things change all the time, and the exemplars in NZQA may be out of date (as they are in this standard)

* Look over the NZQA Exemplars AS2.13 A & AS2.13 B

* AS 2.13 Inference page at CENSUS at schools site

* Any further ideas / suggestions / resources/ comments / errors. Please email maxr@nayland.school.nz

* AS 2.13 section on Nayland Web site updated: Jan 2015

### Web links for 2.13 Simulations AS 91268

Show evidence of all components of PPDAC cycle

Identify tool - only has to say calc and how to allocate numbers to a trial eg digits 0-3 = apple (0.4) (no details needed)

Cell phone random number generator

Assessment: describe simulation with enough detail for someone else to do the simulation, Possible improvements etc

### Excellence

Must describe how how to allocate numbers to a trial eg digits 0-3 = apple (0.4)

Clear definition of a trial

Must describe how how to allocate numbers to a trial eg digits 0-3 = apple (0.4) with at least 1 assumption discussed

Must describe how how to allocate numbers to a trial eg digits 0-3 = apple (0.4) with at least 2 assumptions discussed

Do experiment and record results

Do experiment and record results

Do experiment and record results

Display results (eg mean)

Display results (eg mean - not rounded to whole number)

Display results (eg mean)

Communicate conclusion with sensible rounding

Communicate conclusion with sensible rounding in the discussion - eg 8 days

Understanding that repeated simulation would give different estimates

Communicate conclusion with sensible rounding and understanding that repeated simulation would give different estimates

Linking components of the simulation to the context, explain relevant considerations made in the design of the simulation and support findings with statements that refer to evidence gained from the simulation

Reflect on issues relating to accuracy of simulation.

List the assumptions involved in the simulation.

discussing the consequences of these assumptions and possible improvements on the simulation process.

Discuss the effects of the assumptions on the simulation itself.