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# AS 3.13 Apply Probability Concepts in Solving Problems

### Possible Lesson Sequence for AS 3.13 Probability(AS 91585)

1. Introduction, Overview, basic probability How random is a coin toss?
2. Probability Concepts
3. Probability Vocabulary and notation
4. Expected Value
5. Two-way tables & Venn Diagrams - Introduction
6. Union, Complementary & Mutually Exclusive events (in 2-way tables and venn diagrams)
7. Practice, with P(AuB) formula
8. Independent events (in 2-way tables and venn diagrams)
9. Relationship - Positive, Negative, None
10. Conditional Probability
11. Conditional Practice
12. Probability Trees
13. Probability Trees with conditional
14. Practice
15. Risk & Relative risk
16. Risk practice
17. Simulations - experimantal, theoretical, true probability, design & run
18. Simulation of true probability, Confidence Interval from simulation
19. Revision
20. Practice AS3.13 Assessment

### For Teachers

* Be familiar with the Achievement Standard AS3.13 #91585 (link to NZQA)

* Check the latest information on the NZQA clarifications page as things change all the time, and the exemplars in NZQA may be out of date (as they are in this standard)

* Look over the NZQA Exemplars on AS3.13 Probability 3.13 A Note: these exemplars may not reflect the latest information or the end of year exam... but we can only hope.

* Material available on the mathstatsfacilitators website AS 3.13 page

* AS3.13 page at CENSUS at schools site.

* Past Examination Papers: (link to NZQA) 2013 (& schedule)

* AS 3.13 section on Nayland Website updated: Sept 2014

AS 3.13 'Apply probability concepts in solving problems' is a 4 credit externally assessed topic AS 91585

 Revision books would also be useful. Homework book needed Probability STARTERS  Word Powerpoint Starters (to be updated 2013)