Nayland College

Nayland College - Mathematics

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NZAMT NZQA NZ Grapher NZ Maths Census at School Study It

3.8 Time Series HOME | Achievement Objectives | Overview | The Statistics Cycle
NZ Grapher: The best choice | iNZight: Getting Started , Importing Data
Using EXCEL: Smoothing, Trend, Seasonal Effects, Graphing, Forecasts, Seasonal Adjustment, Non-Linear models, Comparing Excel & iNZight
Report Writing: Summary | Introduction | Trend | Decompose | Recompose | Seasonal Effect | Forecasts | Robustness | Additive vs Multiplicative model | Comparing | Combining | Conclusion | Practice Assessment

Seasonal Effects

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Seasonal Effects

Seasonal Decomposition and Forecasting, Part I (Auckland Uni)

- Tourist visitors to NZ from different countries notes,
- Alcohol exemplar - class work, Worksheet & Google Doc
- Homework Travel Destination- Google doc template

Individual & Estimated Seasonal effects calculated.
Does the data have seasonality?

Note: iNZight graphs do not have labels on the vertical axis. For Merit or better you will need to add a lable with units on the vertical axis.

(Achieve)
Discuss
the estimated seasonal effects
ie what one seasonal cycle is like and possible reason why?
How much above and below the trend line do the estimated seasonal effects go?
It is NOT enough to say something like "the seasonal effect goes up in summer"
Be specific, use numbers, and amounts above or below average (trend line).

(Merit)
Discuss the estimated seasonal effects in context.
Discuss the individual seasonal effects in context, and how they may have changed over time.
Are they consistent or changing? How are they changing?

(Excellence)
In depth discussion: Unusual features? Possible reasons?
Discuss variations in the individual seasonal effects between years. How is the seasonal effect changing, and possible reasons for the changes.

Starter 5

word docs Class notespdf

Exemplar
From the data sets available on statslc.com
Trend

EXEMPLARS:
Use iNZight to produce a time series graph and add the trend line. Copy this into your report and discuss

- Alcohol Consumptn: Data csv,| Word Worksheet | Google Doc class write up

- Travel Destination Data csv | Word Write up | Google Doc class work

- Travel Purposes: Data csv

- Electricity Production: Data csv | (Website)

 

Seasonal Effects

 

Each cycle of seasonal effects plotted, and the Estimated seasonal effect

Shows the variation in seasonal cycles

This could be spread out if there is a long term trend - can look at the dates

Discuss the estimated seasonal effects

ie what one seasonal cycle is like and possible reason why? Discussion in context

Be specific, use numbers, give possible reasons.

 

 

Discuss the individual seasonal effects and how they may have changed over time.

Consistent or changing?
How are they changing?

Unusual features? Possible reasons

 

 

Calculations Overview (you tube video by Pricilla Allan)

 

Discuss the Seasonal Effects for these graphs: (tourist numbers to NZ from different countries of origin)

 

 

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