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NZAMT NZQA NZ Grapher NZ Maths Census at School Study It

3.8 Time Series HOME | Achievement Objectives | Overview | The Statistics Cycle
NZ Grapher: The best choice | iNZight: Getting Started , Importing Data
Using EXCEL: Smoothing, Trend, Seasonal Effects, Graphing, Forecasts, Seasonal Adjustment, Non-Linear models, Comparing Excel & iNZight
Report Writing: Summary | Introduction | Trend | Decompose | Recompose | Seasonal Effect | Forecasts | Robustness | Additive vs Multiplicative model | Comparing | Combining | Conclusion | Practice Assessment

AS 3.8 Investigate Time Series Data AS91580

Possible Lesson Sequence for AS 3.8 Time series (AS 91580)

Class site

1. Overview - predicting the future - posing a question (Achievement Objectives)
Data sets, graphing raw data, discussing features of raw data graph, Multiplicative & Additive models
2. Smoothing data using moving mean
3. Introduction to using iNZight software and the long term trend. Practice discussing trends
4. Computer room: Practice using iNZight and dealing with data uploading
5. iNZight: Decomposing data and practice discussing
6. iNZight: Recomposing data and practice discussing
7. iNZight: Making Predictions and practice discussing
8. Computer room: Practice using iNZight trends/decomposing/recomposing/predictions (discussion)
9. iNZight: Comparing Variables and practice discussing
10. iNZight: Creating New Variables and practice discussing
11. iNZight: Model robustness, re predicting and practice discussing
12. Computer room: Practice using iNZight comparing/creating/re predicting
13. How to write a report
14. More practice
15. Computer room: Practice assessment
16. Computer room: Practice assessment
17. Assessment context research
18. Computer room: Assessment Part 1
19. Computer room: Assessment Part 2
20. Computer room: Assessment Part 2

***Assessment Checklist***

EXEMPLARS:

- Alcohol Consumptn: Data csv, Information pdf | Word Write up | Google Doc class write up

- Travel Destination Data csv , Information pdf | Word Write up | Google Doc class work

- Travel Purposes: Data csv, Information pdf | Google doc template

- Electricity Production: Data csv, Information pdf | (Website) | Google doc template

 

For those using EXCEL:
- Long term trend, fitting a linear model, describing trends in context
- Individual Seasonal effects, Average seasonal effects, describing seasonal effects
- Computer room: Practice using Excel to the above
- How to making predictions using Excel
- Computer room: Practice using Excel to make predictions
- Computer room: Practice using Excel to make predictions
- Residuals, Seasonal Adjustment
- Using Excel with other models - piecewise & non linear
- Comparing Excel and iNZight predictions

For Teachers

* Be familiar with the Achievement Standard AS3.8 91580 (link to NZQA)

* Check the latest information on the NZQA clarifications page as things change all the time, and the exemplars in NZQA may be out of date (as they are in this standard)

* Look over the NZQA Exemplars on AS 3.8 Time Series

* Material available on the mathstatsfacilitators web site AS3.8 page

* AS 3.8 page at CENSUS at schools site.

* Check the latest comments on the NZmaths forum (login required)

* Any further ideas / suggestions / resources/ comments / errors. Please email maxr@nayland.school.nz

* AS 3.8 section on Nayland Web site updated: Feb 2015

 

AS3.8 (91580) Time series involves using Excel to teach concepts of: moving mean, graphing data, smoothed data, seasonal effect, predictions, then...

Link to iNZight siteUsing iNZight to do the 'data crunching' and producing graphs

Check out the iNZight tips and tricks page.

Remember: The Focus is on the statistical cycle and the discussion and interpretation of the analysis.

 

Other Useful Links for AS3.8 Time series AS 91580)

Census at school video on report writing (Lucy Edmonds) and video by Laura Leman & Sophie Wright

Pricilla Allan's Wiki | magsmaths.com powerpoints |

iNZight | iNZight instructions for time series analysis How to use iNZight.

Census at schools resources page | census summary page | data set library | NZ Stats info share

Time Series data sets (2012) Data sets with source and variable info for investigations.

Time Series Data Sets (2013) Data sets to use for investigations.

Economic time series analysis A video about retail sales and building consents.

Teacher Information Video (Digital pathways video about the standard in DRAFT form)

 

Future Site Development:
Starter problems,
Practice activities for class time focused on discussion,
Clearer in class practice assessment
Progress check 'tests'
Posters,

 

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